Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC)
Project Title
For one time funding for a project providing open-source estimates of the Chinese nuclear program as part of a Request for Proposals for the Consortium to Reduce Nuclear Dangers
Date
Dec. 11, 2025
Duration
24 months
Description
China’s rapid nuclear expansion has fueled U.S. projections of “strategic parity” by 2035. Yet many estimates of Chinese nuclear growth rest on opaque assumptions, potentially conflating civilian nuclear activity. This project will provide the first modern open-source assessment of China’s fissile material production for its weapons program. Because nuclear weapons require fissile material, credible arsenal estimates must start from actual production and stocks rather than assumptions about delivery systems or reactors. Using advanced open-source intelligence plus expert consultation and analysis of Chinese-Russian nuclear cooperation, the team will produce transparent, bottom-up estimates of fissile stocks and weapons potential.
Website
Project Title
For an index on Safeguards and Additional Protocol State Implementation Approaches
Date
Sep. 11, 2014
Duration
12 months