Seven Global Conflicts to Watch in 2023

The Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action asks foreign policy experts to rank the top global conflicts based on how likely they are to escalate and their possible impact on U.S. interests in 2023

By Carnegie Corporation of New York February 8, 2023
Emerging Global Order
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Chinese military helicopters fly past Pingtan island on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-ruled island. (Credit: Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

The most likely conflicts to occur in 2023, according to a recent survey of foreign policy experts, include China aggression toward Taiwan; an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine; growing civil unrest in Russia; a security crisis triggered by North Korea’s development and testing of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles; military confrontation between Israel and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program; and a migration surge to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events.  

For the last 15 years, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA), with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York, has been asking foreign policy experts to evaluate 30 ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests. 

As with prior surveys, this year’s Preventive Priorities Survey 2023 aims to help the U.S. policymaking community prioritize competing demands for conflict prevention and mitigation. 

Top-Tier Risks in 2023 

  1. An escalation of coercive pressure by China toward Taiwan, including heightened military activity involving the U.S. and other countries in the region
  2.  An escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, resulting from the employment of unconventional weapons, spillover into neighboring countries, and/or direct involvement of NATO members
  3. A highly disruptive cyberattack targeting U.S. critical infrastructure
  4. Growing civil unrest in Russia and a power struggle in Moscow due to popular dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine and worsening economic conditions 
  5.  An acute security crisis in Northeast Asia triggered by North Korea’s development and testing of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles
  6. A military confrontation between Israel and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program and its continued support for militant groups in neighboring countries
  7. A migration surge to the U.S. due to increased violence, political unrest, and declining economic conditions in Central America and Mexico, aggravated by acute weather events

Read the full survey and learn more about these potential conflicts using CPA’s Global Conflict Tracker.

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