Nuclear Weapons and You

According to a new Chicago Council–Carnegie Corporation of New York poll, 6 in 10 Americans want to know more about nuclear weapons. Good thing — because the arms control process is on the rocks and nuclear weapons threats are growing

By Sharon K. Weiner and Samara ShazJuly 20, 2023

Carnegie Reporter Fall 2023 Nuclear Threats

The Chicago Council-Carnegie Corporation survey shows that while a limited percentage of Americans say they are familiar with U.S. nuclear weapons policy, their costs, their effects, and other issues related to the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal, there is a significant public appetite for increasing that knowledge around U.S. nuclear policy in general and, specifically, how these weapons work, their effect once deployed, and who they are targeted against. (Credit: Mona Chalabi/Carnegie Corporation of New York)

The war in Ukraine has once again elevated concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, the more so because it comes at a time when Russia, China, and the United States are all modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Over the next 30 years, the United States will spend an estimated $1.7 trillion on its modernization plan. Russia will soon deploy a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and China is quickly expanding its arsenal.

The arms control process that has reduced, limited, and constrained past nuclear buildups is on the rocks. The last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear forces — New START — will expire in February 2026 and there is currently no plan or process for what comes next. None of the other seven nuclear weapons states take part in arms control discussions. Meanwhile, North Korea has continued to develop and test its nuclear weapons and long-range, or intercontinental, ballistic missiles. One thing is clear — nuclear threats are growing and evolving.

Illustration by Mona Chalabi using mushroom cloud icons to show the vast nuclear weapon arsenals of the U.S. and Russia compared to other countries.

Credit: Mona Chalabi/Carnegie Corporation of New York

Most Americans, however, spend little if any time thinking about nuclear weapons. Apart from periodic crises, such as the war in Ukraine or a North Korean missile test, nuclear weapons tend to fade into the background. Engagement with their purpose or potential use is easily crowded out by more pressing concerns and further discouraged by the technology, jargon, and secrecy that often accompany nuclear weapons issues.

Nuclear weapons policy tends to be made by a very small number of people and either in secret or with little public scrutiny. This includes the ultimate nuclear decision: whether or not to use the weapons. In the United States, the president has sole authority to make such a call. The president can consult with advisors, but the final decision does not require consensus, informing members of Congress, or advance notice to the American people. Even the vice president isn’t required to play a role.

During the Cold War, concerns about such autocracy were outweighed by the need to launch quickly, should the use of nuclear weapons be deemed necessary. Concerns about a surprise attack, plus the fact that Soviet ICBMs could reach the United States in 30 minutes, meant the president might have to act quickly. Today, however, geopolitical realities make the limited use of small nuclear weapons more likely than a sudden massive strike. Plus, at all times, the United States has a portion of its nuclear arsenal hiding in the ocean. In addition to land-based missiles and bombers, the United States has the equivalent of about 5,000–6,000 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons on submarines, creating a secure arsenal that cannot be destroyed in an attack and allowing more time for deliberation. According to a recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Carnegie Corporation of New York, 6 in 10 Americans said they were very or somewhat uncomfortable with the president having the sole authority to launch nuclear weapons.

Illustration by Mona Chalabi of a recipe for drop biscuits that take 15 minutes to make - the same amount of time it would take the President of the U.S. to decide whether to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in a crisis.

Credit: Mona Chalabi/Carnegie Corporation of New York

Decisions about how nuclear weapons are used, who they target, and when they need to be upgraded and replaced are made by a larger, but still small, group of people. These experts, some working in bureaucracies, some in for-profit companies, are the ones tasked with the day-to-day business of managing the nuclear arsenal and ensuring that it is safe, secure, and effective. But reasonable people can disagree about nuclear strategy, modernization, and arsenal size. That’s why nuclear weapons expertise also must be nurtured in civil society, including in universities, think tanks, and civic groups. These nongovernmental nuclear experts do more than foster healthy debate, democratic accountability, and government oversight. They are a resource for challenging entrenched assumptions, including those that frame the relationship between nuclear weapons and security as permanent and unassailable.

Less than 40 percent of Americans think they know enough about nuclear weapons to assess whether they pose a benefit or harm, according to the 2023 Chicago Council–Carnegie Corporation poll, and 6 in 10 want to know more. They want to know about the effects of nuclear weapons, how much they cost, who is targeted, what to do in case of a nuclear attack, and whether they should worry about their use, among a host of other issues.

With recent dramatic headlines about possible nuclear use by Russia, the weakening of global nonproliferation norms, the rocky future of arms control, and the role of artificial intelligence in nuclear command and control, now is a great time to learn more about nuclear weapons.

Through its grantmaking, Carnegie Corporation of New York expands and deepens the expertise that can help reduce the dangers posed by nuclear weapons. This includes making it easier for people to learn about and engage with nuclear weapons issues, as well as to advocate for their policy preferences. After all, even though most people don’t spend much time thinking about nuclear weapons, if they are ever used, they will certainly impact everyone.

NUKEMAP

For more about how nuclear weapons use might impact you, check out Alex Wellerstein’s NUKEMAP, which calculates the effects of the detonation of a nuclear bomb.

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Sharon K. Weiner is a senior resident fellow in the International Peace and Security program at Carnegie Corporation of New York and an associate professor at American University’s School of International Service, whose teaching, research, and policy engagement are at the intersection of organizational politics and U.S. national security. Her work also focuses on civil-military relations and nuclear weapons programs and nonproliferation. Samara Shaz is a program assistant for the International Peace and Security program. Previously, she was a research assistant at MIT’s Security Studies Program, investigating the salience of nuclear weapons in American politics.

Mona Chalabi is a Pulitzer Prize–winning data journalist whose writing and illustrations have been published in the New York Times, the New Yorker, and the Guardian, where she serves as data editor. Chalabi uses words, color, and sound to make complex data easier to understand. Her video, audio, and production work has been featured on Netflix, NPR, the BBC, and National Geographic.